Business cycles and the impact of labour market programmes

By comparing mean outcomes for a large number of matched samples of participants and nonparticipants we estimate individual earnings effect of the Norwegian labour market training programme (LMT) targeted at unemployed adults in the years 1991-1996. The average training effect on the trained is positive, even after three years. The training effect is positively correlated with post-training job opportunities in the (local) labour market, when job opportunities are measured by time-varying human capital adjusted national and regionspecific exit rates from unemployment.