Business Cycles and the Scale of Economic Shock

The purpose of this paper is to determine the scale of economic shocks (SES), considering a new indicator based on the duration (in months) of contractions and expansions within Business Cycles and their amplitude, measured by GDP percent change based on chained 2000 dollars. Data of US Business cycles are used. The result is that the SES shows the real economic impact of contractions and expansions over time and serves as a warning signal that the economic system is entering into a turbulent state in the shortrun