Can Investor Sentiment Be a Momentum Time-Series Predictor? Evidence from China
This paper challenges the prevailing view that investor sentiment is a contrarian predictor of market returns at nearly all horizons. As an important piece of "out-of-sample" evidence, we document that investor sentiment in China is a reliable momentum signal at monthly frequency. The strong momentum predictability is robust under both single- and multi-regressor settings, and is statistically and economically significant both in and out of sample, enhancing portfolio performance as shown by our numerical examples. More importantly, we find a striking term structure that local sentiment shifts from a short-term momentum predictor to a contrarian predictor in the long run. Cross-sectional analysis reveals that sentiment is more of a small-firm effect. Finally, we confirm that global sentiment spills over to the local Chinese market, as it predicts negatively future returns over the longer horizons and in the cross section
Year of publication: |
2017
|
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Authors: | Han, Xing |
Other Persons: | Li, Youwei (contributor) |
Publisher: |
[2017]: [S.l.] : SSRN |
Subject: | China | Anlageverhalten | Behavioural finance | Zeitreihenanalyse | Time series analysis | Prognoseverfahren | Forecasting model | Unternehmenserfolg | Firm performance | Momentenmethode | Method of moments | Kapitaleinkommen | Capital income | Aktienmarkt | Stock market |
Saved in:
freely available
Extent: | 1 Online-Ressource (62 p) |
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Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Notes: | Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments April 20, 2015 erstellt |
Other identifiers: | 10.2139/ssrn.2938886 [DOI] |
Classification: | C22 - Time-Series Models ; C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; G11 - Portfolio Choice ; G12 - Asset Pricing ; G17 - Financial Forecasting |
Source: | ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960494
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