Capturing Experts' Uncertainty in Welfare Analysis: An Application to Organophosphate Use Regulation in U.S. Apple Production.
The use of organophosphate insecticides in apple production has become of regulatory concern since the Food Quality Protection Act passed into law in 1996. Through an expert opinion survey, we assess the economic impact of possible regulatory scenarios on the apple industry. Because experts are unsure of the impacts, we ask them for distributions of impacts to explicitly capture the uncertainty they face. We apply Bayesian methods to aggregate these distributions. Welfare impact distributions for different policy scenarios are estimated and ordered using a nonparametric test for stochastic ordering of probability distributions to facilitate policy decision making. Copyright 2001 by American Agricultural Economics Association
Year of publication: |
2001
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Authors: | Roosen, Jutta ; Hennessy, David A |
Published in: |
American Journal of Agricultural Economics. - American Agricultural Economics Association. - Vol. 83.2001, 1, p. 166-82
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Publisher: |
American Agricultural Economics Association |
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