Cattle trade and the risk of importing animal diseases into the Netherlands

This study examines the risk of importing animal diseases into the Netherlands through livestock trade. It presents projections of Dutch cattle imports until 2010, and applies quantitative epidemiology to estimate the related probabilities of importing three animal diseases (foot and mouth disease, bovine tuberculosis, and leptospirosis). A key result is that trade flows involving large numbers of cattle from a large number of small-scale farms poses alarming risks to veterinary health in the Netherlands.