CENTRAL BANK STRATEGIC FORECASTING
type="main" xml:lang="en"> <p>In most of the literature on transparency it has been standard to assume that central banks release truthful information when communicating with the public. However, the monetary policymaker may act strategically and misrepresent private information intending to reduce economic volatility by manipulating inflation expectations. We set up a simple model which includes misrepresentation as a possible action for the central bank and derive some testable implications. The empirical evidence from the analysis of inflation forecasts of six central banks (Brazil, Canada, England, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden) is consistent with the existence of strategic forecasting. (JEL E52, E58)
Year of publication: |
2014
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Authors: | GOMEZ-BARRERO, SEBASTIAN ; PARRA-POLANIA, JULIAN A. |
Published in: |
Contemporary Economic Policy. - Western Economic Association International - WEAI, ISSN 1074-3529. - Vol. 32.2014, 4, p. 802-810
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Publisher: |
Western Economic Association International - WEAI |
Saved in:
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