Central banks’ inflation forecasts under asymmetric loss: Evidence from four Latin-American countries

We study the rationality of the inflation forecasts of the central banks of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We reject rationality under a symmetric (Chile is an exception) but not under an asymmetric loss function. An overprediction implies a larger loss than an underprediction. We also analyze alternative rationality tests, growth forecasts, and private-sector forecasts.

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Year of publication:	2015
Authors:	Pierdzioch, Christian ; Rülke, Jan-Christoph ; Stadtmann, Georg
Published in:	Economics Letters. - Elsevier, ISSN 0165-1765. - Vol. 129.2015, C, p. 66-70
Publisher:	Elsevier
Subject:	Central banks \| Forecasting \| Loss function \| Asymmetric loss

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Type of publication:	Article
Classification:	F31 - Foreign Exchange ; D84 - Expectations; Speculations
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011263442