Changes in Twelfth District local banking market structure during a period of industry consolidation

A main public policy concern regarding the massive consolidation of the banking industry between 1984 and 2003 is the consolidation's potential effect on competition in local banking markets. Examining this period for the Twelfth Federal Reserve District, I find, on the whole, moderate increases in concentration in urban markets and decreases in concentration in rural markets, although a number of local markets have shown large increases in concentration to high levels. However, consistent with antitrust enforcement and competition, I find negative and highly statistically significant effects of concentration on the long-run change in concentration and, for high enough levels of initial concentration, actual decreases in concentration.