China's Accession to the WTO: Timing is Everything

REVISED September 2000 Paper presented at the Conference on Global Economics Transformation after the Asian Economic Crisis, Hong Kong, May 27-28, 2000. Forthcoming in World Economy. Since China’s application in 1987 to resume its status in the Generalized Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO) there has been a great deal of debate over the timing of China’s accession. Although most of the issues relating to the timing of China’s trade liberalization have been resolved, the abolition of restrictions on Chinese textiles and clothing may still be subject to delay if the United States and Europe choose to implement the safeguards contained in the their bilateral accession agreements with China as well as in the original Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). In this paper, the effects of alternative target dates for the elimination of restrictions on textiles quotas are examined. Since this issue revolves fundamentally around the question of timing, it is most appropriately addressed in a dynamic model. In this study we use the Dynamic GTAP Model. This is applied to a 19-region by 22-commodity aggregation of the GTAP Data Base, supplemented with foreign income data. The paper finds that timing is indeed an important determinant of the profile of structural adjustment required in China and the rest of the world. In light of their interest in delayed implementation the ATC, it is interesting to note that our results suggest slower elimination of these quotas is detrimental to national welfare in North America and Europe.