Climate change driven shifts in the extent and location of areas suitable for export banana production

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is used to map areas predicted to be suitable for commercial banana production in Central and northwestern South America. Using the downscaled climate projections for 2060 from seven leading global climate models we then predict the geographical shifts in areas suitable for banana production. We repeat this process for conventional and organic banana production. Approximately half of the existing conventional plantations included in the analysis are located in areas predicted to become unsuitable for banana production by 2060. The overall extent of areas suitable for conventional banana cultivation is predicted to decrease by 19%, but all countries are predicted to maintain some suitable areas. The extent of areas suitable for organic banana cultivation is predicted to nearly double due primarily to climatic drying. Several countries (e.g., Colombia and Honduras) are predicted to experience large net decreases in the extent of areas suitable for banana cultivation. Some countries (e.g., Mexico) are predicted to experience large net increases in the extent of suitable areas. The shifts in the location of areas that will be suitable for banana cultivation are predicted to occur mainly within areas outside of protected areas and that are already under agricultural production.