Climate Shocks and (Very) Long-Run Productivity

The present study examines the link between temperature and long-run productivity for a balanced panel of 21 countries, covering the period 1000-1800 CE. Collectively the countries examined accounted for about 2/3 of the global population by 1700. Each epoch in the analysis is a century long, which thus allows time for human adaptation after a temperature shock has occurred. Our principal finding is that lower temperatures worked to reduce productivity growth during the period in focus, consistent with contributions to the literature in economic history that argue the Little Ice Age was as a contractionary shock