Cognitive Risk
The year 2020 will be remembered in history as a realization of systemic risks resulting from human behavior. Risks and opportunity have always emerged from the decisions and behaviors of humans yet for thousands of years the transformation of nature to provide a hospitable environment to live, work and raise a family has never been more acute. The world’s population of almost 8 billion people is transforming at a rapid pace in emerging markets compared to developed markets. By 2050, India’s population is expected to exceed China which is number one today. Nigeria is expected to displace the United States in the number 3 spot followed by Pakistan, Indonesia and Brazil; and Russia #9 today, will fall to #14 in the world. The shift in population growth will also be reflected in changing demographics as the rich developed countries experience aging populations while the emerging countries rise with younger cohorts. A second major shift is emerging in terms of scarce resources, climate change, technological disruption, the rise of global pandemics, concentrations of wealth, and nationalistic divisions resulting in geopolitical risks. The world is reaching an inflection point in human behavior to either collaborate to solve the world’s problems or devolve into corners to protect diminishing resources we all share – water, clean air, habitable land, etc. In the rise of the “so called”, Fourth Industrial Revolution, the role of human behavior and rational choice is no longer a matter of simple utility maximization it is becoming a choice in survival, literally and figuratively. This new emergent risk we call, Cognitive Risk, a risk that is being shaped in political rhetoric, social media, wealth creation and choice driven by increasingly higher intertemporal discount rates that are inevitably short-sighted. This paper calls for extensive research to expand knowledge in decision science, behavioral economics, and choice theory in all risk disciplines. Further, the silos of academic research must be broken to become more inclusive with real-life practitioners in diverse fields and disciplines. Access to knowledge is not an exclusive domain where only a few elite schools and researchers have insights. Today technology firms, private research firms and corporations are contributing to insights into decision science. The celebration of advancements by Dan Kahneman and Amos Tversky in Prospect Theory and behavioral economics has become a trickle of practical application of solutions in the real world. Cognitive risks (bias) reside in all institutions who concentrate expertise behind walls of power. We see the vulnerabilities at every turn. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has exposed the need for extensive research in strategies to influence behavior to encourage participation in life-saving strategies. Technology has taken the lead in the pandemic and will continue to expand but if this moment is not met with new openness and transparency at all levels the promise will not be met
Year of publication: |
[2022]
|
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Authors: | Bone, James |
Publisher: |
[S.l.] : SSRN |
Subject: | Tourismusregion | Tourism destination | Kognition | Cognition | Risiko | Risk | Risikomanagement | Risk management | Risikopräferenz | Risk attitude | Entscheidung unter Risiko | Decision under risk |
Saved in:
freely available
Extent: | 1 Online-Ressource (8 p) |
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Series: | |
Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Notes: | In: Cognitive Risk Institute Working paper #1/2021 Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments January 13, 2022 erstellt |
Source: | ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013297734
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