Commodity Trade Analysis in a General Equilibrium Framework : BSE Restrictions on Beef Imports from the United States and Canada

This paper estimates the economic impacts of BSE-related restrictions imposed on beef imports from the United States and Canada in 2004. The analysis is based on a simulation framework which consists of a partial equilibrium (PE) model and a general equilibrium (GE) model. The PE model focuses on bilateral trade in beef products at the HS six-digit level. The GE model is an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of bilateral trade specified at an aggregate product level. It is estimated that the long-term effects of the 2004 BSE bans were a $3.1 billion, or 84 percent decline in annual U.S. beef exports; a 6 percent decline in the supply of U.S. beef cattle; a $1.3 billion, or 9 percent decline in beef cattle sales revenue; and a $2.7 billion, or 7 percent decline in beef packing sales revenue