Comparative Analysis Regarding the Accuracy of State Budget Revenues Forecasts in Romania

The objective of this research is related to the comparison between the government planning for the revenues and our own forecasts based on an econometric model. An auto-adaptive model was constructed for the revenues, taking into account the previous expectations regarding the government revenues. The U1 Theil's statistic was used to make the comparison between the two forecasts in terms of accuracy. The comparison of each type of prediction with the naive forecasts based on random walk was made using U2 Theil's statistic. The proposed auto- adaptive model could also be used by the government as a possible strategy to improve the government revenues accuracy.