Comparing the Predictive Information Content of College Football Rankings

The method in Fair and Shiller (1990) is used in this paper to compare the predictive information content of various college football ranking systems. The results show that a number of systems have useful independent information. Optimal weights for the systems are estimated, and the use of these weights produces a predictive system that is more accurate than any of the individual systems. The results also provide a fairly precise estimate of the size of the home field advantage.