COMPOSIÇÃO ÓTIMA PARA A DÍVIDA PÚBLICA: UMA ANÁLISE MACRO-ESTRUTURAL

The development of the process for liberalization and integration of the domestic markets on relation to the international markets along the last decades and the increasing volatility of capital flows resulted in the necessity of a higher coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. After the adoption of inflation targeting model by the Brazilian government, on June 1999, several works were made aiming to estimate the best macroeconomic models to be followed by monetary authority. Those models were developed in order to discipline and foment the discussions about monetary policies by Central Bank. The scope of this paper is to develop a "small macro-structural model" for the Brazilian economy, whose objective is to determine the optimal composition for public debt according to the Efficient Frontier analysis (Markovitz Model). Thus, this paper aims at finding out the most adequate composition for public debt, considering that Central Bank follows a given rule for monetary policy. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to determine the optimal "structure" of debt related to each indicator composition, considering the reaction function of the Central Bank. However, this paper does not try to estimate the optimal monetary rule followed by the Central Bank.