Conflict, Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia

Densely populated South Asia faces the challenge of reducing hunger and food insecurity while combating vulnerability to climate change, natural disasters and conflicts. Home to about 36 per cent of the undernourished people in the world, the region (along with Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa) accounted for 84 percent of violent terrorist attacks and 95 percent of related fatalities in the world. Higher instances of temperature extremes and altered rainfall patterns accompanied with sea level rise are affecting livelihoods and pushing migration both at national and sub-national levels. In this context, the study examines conflicts (through dummies considering combinations of conflict/no conflict in the present and preceding years) and climate change (as captured by rainfall and temperature over the period 1901 to 2014) as correlates of food security using fixed-effects panel data regression analysis over the period 1991 to 2014. Our econometric findings indicate that both conflicts and climate change worsen the already precarious food security situation in South Asia. In fact, the impact is even greater when prolonged conflicts are considered. Analyzing conflict–climate interactions, food insecurity appears to further worsen with temperatures deviating from their pre-structural break averages, when considered along with prolonged armed conflicts. The study concludes by recommending policies addressing food insecurity, conflicts, and climate change adaptation and mitigation