Conservation through intensification? The effects of plantations on natural forests

The rapid growth in plantation forestry over the past two decades attests to the sector's importance in meeting rising global demand for timber, fuel and fiber. However, plantation forests differ dramatically from natural forests in the types of ecosystem services they can provide. As a result, it is important to understand the aggregate effects of plantation expansion on natural forests. Using a simple partial equilibrium model and a global panel dataset of forest statistics, this paper assesses the impacts of plantation expansion upon the extent of natural forests. The analysis shows that plantation expansion has resulted in a contraction of natural forests dedicated to forest product extraction, but an expansion of un-harvested natural forests and the associated generation of ecosystem services. The model and empirical evidence emphasize, however, that there is significant heterogeneity in this outcome depending upon the own-price elasticity of demand for forest products and, as a result, the trade intensity of the forestry sector. The potential for beneficial effects of plantation expansion on un-harvested natural forests is diminished in countries with trade-oriented forestry sectors.