Convergência dos sistemas financeiros no período 1971-2000: uma análise por meio de Matrizes de Markov [Convergence of financial systems between 1971 and 2000: an analysis with Markov matrices]

This article analyzes the convergence of the financial systems of 27 developed and underdeveloped countries, based on their performance during the periods from 1971 to 1990, and 1990 to 2000. The analysis was performed using Markov matrices, and was based on two variables related to the role of financial intermediaries in these systems: credit/GDP ratio and volume of deposits/GDP ratio. The results obtained, based on the data for these two periods, indicate that there will not be convergence of the financial systems of these countries into a single pattern over the long term. The pattern of convergence based on the 1990-2000 period differs from the pattern based on the first period. The second period was characterized by the intensification of financial globalization, which resulted in great changes in the financial markets of many countries. The results from this period suggest a tendency to converge towards two extremes with respect to the function of the banks in financial systems.