Coping with uncertainty : an expedition in the field of new transport technology

Many decisions of mankind are rational only to a limited extent. This holds for individual travel behaviour, but also for long-range strategic decisions on transport systems or transport technology. In any decision problem coping with uncertainty is the most critical element. The introduction of new transport technology is surrounded by many types of uncertainty. For example, there is uncertainty about the pace and extent of adoption of new technology and there is uncertainty about the impact of new technology in terms of an increased sustainability or increased efficiency. This article attempts to map uncertainty surrounding new transport technology and to identify ways to deal with uncertainty in policy making. The findings will be illustrated with electric vehicles, particularly with two specific strategies to deal with uncertainty, i.e. interactive technology watching and experimentation in a market niche. The article concludes with a discussion of success factors that influence the outcomes of such strategies.