A Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Appraisal of Social and Market Prices in the Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of Building Portfolios : A Tool for the Evaluation of Disaster Risk Reduction Programs
A cost-benefit analysis can be a milestone for the probabilistic seismic risk assessment of building portfolios. This approach appraises social, economic, and technical aspects as evaluation criteria, becoming a reliable method for more accurate feasibility evaluation of Disaster Risk Reduction, DRR programs. This paper proposes a simplified methodology to estimate the feasibility of intervention campaigns directed to the seismic retrofitting for building portfolios. Its features include variables such as: intervention levels, resource distribution, repair time, direct and indirect losses, seismic resilience, number of casualties, amount of replacement buildings, and service life. Then, all these factors are analyzed using a probabilistic seismic risk assessment, followed by estimating of net cash flows in terms of social and market prices. The final profitability and feasibility are determined based on investment indicators (Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Cost-Benefit ratio). Furthermore, plots of repair time and seismic resilience (as a function of the resource distribution) are proposed as novel decision-making tools. To illustrate the methodology, a case study of six building portfolios grouped into two categories is presented. The portfolios are conformed by a Peruvian school typology designated as 780-PRE. That included eleven target scenarios to assess the as-built and several intervention conditions, based on incremental seismic retrofitting measures. Results confirm that social prices highly influence the decision-making process, even making feasible projects that seemed initially unfeasible (when solely appraised under market prices). Finally, the authors propose further applications of this methodology as a tool towards future development of reliable DRR programs
Year of publication: |
2022
|
---|---|
Authors: | Aroquipa, Hector ; Hurtado, Alvaro ; Hurtado, Alvaro ; Angel, Christiam ; Aroquipa, Angel ; Gamarra, Adriel ; Almeida Del Savio, Alexandre |
Publisher: |
[S.l.] : SSRN |
Saved in:
freely available
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
A Contribution of Bayesian Approach to Experimental Economics
Hurtado, Alvaro, (2016)
-
Hurtado, Alvaro, (2019)
-
Informality and Formality : Fiscal Policy in DSGE Model
Botero, Jesús, (2014)
- More ...