Craft and Technician Skill Shortages in Engineering

The occupational profile of the engineering industry has changed radically in recent years. Employment of craftsmen has declined in absolute and relative terms and is projected to continue to decrease in future. Technicians have increased in relative significance and their employment is forecast to remain stable. Trainees are crucial to the future supply of qualified personnel, but the cutback in trainees has outstripped the rate of employment loss. Time‐series models reveal that the length of the adjustment process which brings supply and demand back into balance given a shock to the system is approximately four years, consistent with the lags in training. Trends in manpower balances indicate that current net loss rates from stocks will have to be reduced if supply is to meet demand in the short and medium term. Hence the way in which skills shortages can and do occur in declining occupations is illustrated.