Credibility of Managerial Forecast Disclosure– Game Theory and Regulative Implications –

Managerial forecast disclosure has gained increasing interest. Besides voluntary publication,managers are more and more obliged to disclose forecasts by recent accountingregulation. This acknowledges the common proposition that forecasts were exceptionallyrelevant and decision useful information for investors. But it neglects the problems ofcredibility arising from the non-verifiable nature of forecasts. My paper analytically investigatesthe credibility of managerial forecast disclosure introducing a game theoreticperspective by extracting robust implications from disclosure models. The analysis is twofold,aiming first at a non-regulated environment and second at an environment with auditor liability systems.[...]