Credit score migration analysis of farm businesses: conditioning on business cycles and migration trends

This study examines credit score migration rates of farm businesses, testing whether migration probabilities differ across business cycles. Results suggest that agricultural credit ratings are more likely to improve during expansions and deteriorate during recessions. The analysis also tests whether agricultural credit ratings depend on the previous period migration trends. The findings show that credit score ratings exhibit trend reversal where upgrades (downgrades) are more likely to be followed by downgrades (upgrades).