Crescita economica ed economia sommersa. Un approccio di simulazione e verifica empirica per l’Italia

This paper examines the role of shadow economy, tax enforcement and taxation, on economic growth. These effects are studied by simulating a modified version of an endogenous growth model proposed by Loayza (1996). Econometric results and calibration are based on the Italian economy over the period 1982-2004. Empirical evidence confirms the theoretical model. We show that the relationship between shadow economy, direct tax burden and the growth rate of GDP is negative in the long run equilibrium