Critical issues for the calculation of the social cost of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>: why the estimates from PAGE09 are higher than those from PAGE2002
PAGE09 is an updated version of the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model (Hope <CitationRef CitationID="CR14">2011a</CitationRef>). The default PAGE09 model gives a mean estimate of the social cost of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> (SCCO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) of $106 per tonne of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>, compared to $81 from the PAGE2002 model used in the Stern review (Stern <CitationRef CitationID="CR24">2007</CitationRef>). The increase is the net result of several improvements that have been incorporated into the PAGE09 model in response to the critical debate around the Stern review: the adoption of the A1B socio-economic scenario, rather than A2 whose population assumptions are now thought to be implausible; the use of ranges for the two components of the discount rate, rather than the single values used in the Stern review; a distribution for the climate sensitivity that is consistent with the latest estimates from IPCC <CitationRef CitationID="CR16">2007a</CitationRef>; less adaptation than in PAGE2002, particularly in the economic sector, which was criticised for possibly being over-optimistic; and a more theoretically-justified basis of valuation that gives results appropriate to a representative agent from the focus region, the EU. The effect of each of these adjustments is quantified and explained. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Year of publication: |
2013
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Authors: | Hope, Chris |
Published in: |
Climatic Change. - Springer. - Vol. 117.2013, 3, p. 531-543
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Publisher: |
Springer |
Saved in:
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