Cross-Scale Socio-Hydrological Interactions Defining Urban Water Supply Reliability

Integrated urban water management requires understanding of system boundaries and interactions among system components, which determine changes in urban water balance. A system dynamics model is developed to capture formal-informal water supply interactions. Employing a dynamic socio-hydrological framework, these interactions are simulated in the context of Hyderabad, Pakistan for the years 1991-2030. Results reveal that, whilst increasing reliance on informal systems improves overall supply, higher inflation, unauthorized water acquisition, and lower informal supply capacity constrain supply reliability over time. Seasonal water supply changes and competing agricultural demands further widen the supply-demand gap, which can be improved by increasing agricultural efficiency