Cuantificación de los costes de política climática con modelos de equilibrio general computable

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are regularly used for assessing the impacts of environmental policies on the economy. This article applies this methodology for global climate policy using the world GEM-E3 CGE model. An emissions reduction scenario meeting the EU 2 degrees target is designed with specific climate policy instruments, mainly relying on emissions trading. The marginal cost is estimated at 40 US$/tCO2-eq in 2020 and around double that figure for the year 2030. The GDP of the world economy would fall in annual terms by 0.11% in 2020 and 0.17% in 2030, compared to the baseline scenario. The world welfare would be annually reduced by 0.1% and 0.15% by 2020 and 2030, respectively.