Decizia de Politica Monetara : Intre Teorie si Intuitie

Any decision is eventually the product of a procedure which requires assembling a multitude of primary information, passed through reiterative processes both of organisation and of analysis. The procedures also regard “pushing” these transformed/processed towards preparatory levels only to reach in the end the direct decision-makers. The decision of monetary policy also submits to these rules but, like in other fields, the simple information, irrespective of its level of organisation and hierarchical processing, doesn’t seem to be sufficient to make a decision. The special and very sensitive domain of central bank policy brings imponderable elements into the decision-making process which belong to the decision-makers themselves through education, profession, expertise, passion, devotion, perception of reality, own measure and interpretation of the monetary and macroeconomic phenomenology, etc. Of course, all these imponderables draw sap from the knowledge of economic theory, but their practical application transcends theory and becomes an extremely interesting exercise, a game of intuition which simply happens. The role of intuition in monetary policy decisions ended by being interpreted even as an “obscure art”. Trying to explain the interference of intuition in the monetary policy decisions is exactly the purpose of this paper, from author’s own angle and understanding. This attempt doesn’t preclude the existence of other opinions emerging from similar experiences.