Decomposition of Russia’s Economic Growth Rates 2018-2019

We have performed a decomposition of Russia's GDP growth rates to assess the current state of the Russian economy. Basic production factors (labour, capital, total factor productivity) in 2018 contributed to the growth around 1.6 p.p. Global crude oil prices posted a negative contribution of around -0.5 .p., while the business cycle and random shocks components altogether contributed around 1.2 .p. End-of year growth for 2019 might stay at 1.7–2.0%, barring negative shocks