Deep Trade Agreements and FDI in Partial and General Equilibrium: A Structural Estimation Framework

We quantify the relationships between deep trade liberalization and foreign direct investment (FDI). To this end, we focus on the effects of Deep Trade Agreements (DTAs), and we rely on a structural framework that simultaneously enables us to (i) estimate the direct impact of DTAs on FDI, (ii) translate the partial DTA estimates into general equilibrium effects on FDI; and (iii) obtain partial DTA effects on trade and quantify the impact of DTAs on FDI through trade. We obtain sizable, positive, and statistically significant estimates of the effects of DTAs on both trade and FDI. A counterfactual analysis suggests that, in combination through direct and indirect channels, DTAs have contributed to a large but very asymmetric increase in inward vs. outward FDI.