Der Beschäftigungseffekt geringerer Sozialabgaben in Deutschland - Wie beeinflusst die Wahl des Simulationsmodells das Ergebnis?

This study analyses to what extent political advice may depend on research instru-ments. As an example, a cut in the social contributions rate, financed by an increase in VAT or by a flat-rate premium, was simulated with three alternative macro models. The general equilibrium model PACE-L, the long term structural model IAB/INFORGE and the short term business cycle model IAB/RWI all contain the main components of the theoretical analysis. These are labour demand, depending on wages, as well as wage setting through bargaining. However, the models put differ-ent emphasis on the main factors that influence the employment effect of the partial refinancing of the social security system, namely labour costs, macroeconomic de-mand and the shift of the tax burden. The maximum employment effect is found by the general equilibrium model in a flat-rate premium case for everyone. It amounts to 0.56 %. In the only negative case, employment declines by 0.05 %. Via moderate wage claims, employees can promote the employment effect of the reform in theory as well as in all the simulation models.