Determinantes del crecimiento regional por sector de la industria manufacturera en México, 1988-2008

In the framework of agglomeration economies and the New Economic Geography, this article presents an analysis aimed at identifying the determinants of regional growth by sector of Mexico’s manufacturing industry. Among the main results are: i) In the long term, the main factor behind Mexico’s regional industrial growth are Jacobs externalities (urbanization economies) ii) Market conditions (wages) are the main short term factor behind this growth. iii) There is heterogeneity in the determinants of regional growth between technological intensity groups. Low technology sectors appear to be more sensitive to initial wages and, in terms of agglomeration economies, they show Jacobs externalities, while higher technology sectors exhibit Porter economies competition/specialization). iv) Once we control for market conditions, agglomeration economies and initial conditions, there are regions such as the South, the Center and the Gulf of Mexico that have a relative disadvantage for growth in sectors of medium-high technological intensity. Moreover, when the analysis is conducted at the metropolitan area level, there is only one out of fifty eight that shows a relative advantage for growth of this kind of industries. Relative advantages for low-tech sectors appear to be related to transportation and services infrastructure, while for high-tech sectors the main determinant is human capital stock.