Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy

by Sebastian Gell

Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. Sebastian Gell gives answer to the following questions: How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions? And what factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?

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Year of publication:	2012
Authors:	Gell, Sebastian
Publisher:	Wiesbaden : Gabler Verlag
Subject:	Unternehmen \| Enterprise \| Gewinn \| Profit \| Prognose \| Forecast \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Finanzanalyse \| Fehler \| Änderung \| Genauigkeit
Description of contents:	Financial analysts -- Earnings forecast error -- Earnings forecast accuracy -- Earnings forecast revision -- Conservatism -- Forecast effort Table of Contents [d-nb.info] ; Description [swbplus.bsz-bw.de] ; Description [deposit.dnb.de]

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Extent:	Online-Ressource (XXIV, 125p. 7 illus, digital)
Series:	Quantitatives Controlling SpringerLink / Bücher
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Description based upon print version of record Geleitwort; Vorwort; Table of Content; List of Abbreviations; List of Symbols; List of Figures; List of Tables; 1 Introduction; 1.1 Motivation; 1.2 Research objectives and structure of thesis; 2 Determinants of earnings forecast errors; 2.1 The forecast environment; 2.1.1 Financial analysts and users of research reports; 2.2 Empirical evidence on determinants of forecast errors; 2.2.1 Forecast bias explanations; 2.2.2 Determinants of the initial forecast error; 2.2.3 Determinants of the final forecast error; 3 Using forecast errors to explain revisions; 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Relation to prior research3.3 Research design and data; 3.3.1 The relation between forecast error and revision; 3.3.2 Regression model and hypotheses development; 3.3.3 Sample selection; 3.3.4 Descriptive statistics; 3.4 Empirical results; 3.4.1 Test of Hypothesis 3.1; 3.4.2 Test of Hypothesis 3.2a and Hypothesis 3.2b; 3.5 Market reaction to forecast revisions; 3.5.1 Research design; 3.5.2 Results; 3.6 Predicting revisions and price changes; 3.6.1 Research design; 3.6.2 Results; 3.7 Conservatism in analyst forecast revisions; 3.7.1 Introduction; 3.7.2 Conservatism in earnings 3.7.3 Hypotheses development3.7.4 Research design; 3.7.5 Results Test of Hypothesis 3.3a and Hypothesis 3.4a; 3.8 Conclusion; 4 Impact of forecast effort and investment advice on accuracy; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Relation to prior research and hypotheses development; 4.2.1 Research on the determinants of accuracy; 4.2.2 Research on the relation between earnings forecasts and investment advice; 4.3 Research design and data sample; 4.3.1 Measurement of general forecast effort and provision of investment advice; 4.3.2 Measurement of forecast accuracy; 4.3.3 Measurement of forecast timeliness 4.3.4 Measurement of forecast boldness4.3.5 Sample selection; 4.4 Results; 4.4.1 Univariate analyses; 4.4.2 Multivariate analyses; 4.4.3 Differentiation from the firm-specific effort and forecast age; 4.4.4 Controlling for the investment banking effect; 4.4.5 Analyses on consensus level; 4.4.6 Controlling for the tail asymmetry in forecast error distribution; 4.4.7 Conclusion; 5 Concluding remarks; 5.1 Summary of findings; 5.2 Suggestions for future research; 6 Appendix; References
ISBN:	978-3-8349-3937-1 ; 1-280-78804-6 ; 978-1-280-78804-8 ; 978-3-8349-3936-4
Other identifiers:	10.1007/978-3-8349-3937-1 [DOI]
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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