Determinants of savings among non-Ricardian households in South Africa

Purpose: This paper examines the determinants of savings among low-income households, regarded as non-Ricardian households (NRHs), in South Africa. NRHs comprise low-income households largely depending on government welfare benefits for sustenance. This research investigates socio-economic factors determining savings pattern of low-income households in South Africa. Design/methodology/approach: The research makes use of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) data set wave one to five. The longitudinal survey models are analysed in determining the socio-economic characteristics of NRH in South Africa. The estimators include Pooled ordinary least square (OLS), fixed and random effects methods. Findings: The household grant contributes positively to the level of savings, but the savings level is still considerably low: majority of the low-income households have zero or negative savings. The average size of a NRH is about twice the size of the Ricardian, despite the NRHs’ debt burden impoverishing them. Research limitations/implications: The self-perpetuated poverty problem makes every factor in the vicious cycle both cause and effect of another factor, warranting reverse causality and threatening the reliability of Pooled OLS estimates for the research. Practical implications: The growing cost of government grant hinges on the increased level of inflation while largely depending on the number of households entering the low-income threshold. Social implications: The study recommends that the government creates a more enabling environment for NRHs to engage in productive activities. Also they create more low-skilled jobs and encourage reduction of birth rate among low-income households; this will reduce their expenditure and increase their level of savings and will assist in pulling them out of the vicious circle of poverty. Government can boost NRHs’ savings through increase in various grants. Originality/value: The study makes significant contribution towards addressing the unfortunate situation of household savings among low-income brackets in South Africa. The research corroborates other studies on the effectiveness of the fiscal stimulus package to boost the welfare and savings condition of NRHs in South Africa. The result explicitly confirmed the redistribution policy of the grant to the low-income household. The grant has a significant positive effect on the savings pattern of the household. An increase in it beyond the poverty threshold could indeed break the vicious circle of poverty since the effect does not only stop at expenditure but also pass through to savings, which may ultimately boost investment. Further studies should continue the investigation of grant transmission channels to investment and income. Peer review: The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-11-2019-0692