Determining optimum electricity generation technology under the reference and the 450 scenario in an emerging economy: The case of Turkey

Energy vulnerability and security have become top issues for all countries. As an emerging economy, Turkey’s electricity consumption has increased significantly and is expected to follow the same trend in the future. Turkey should start to install new power plants in 2010 to prevent a probable electricity energy deficiency in 2014. Therefore, Turkey is faced with the problem of ranking and selecting the optimum electricity generation technology from natural gas combined cycle power plants, coal power combined heat plants, wind onshore power plants, hydro power plants, nuclear power plants and solar PV power plants by taking into account cost efficiency, cost volatility risk, supply security, climate change & other pollution, and supply-demand mismatch. Grey Relational Analysis is utilized to propose solution to this multiple attribute decision making problem by carrying out sensitivity analyses as well. The empirical results reveal that Turkey should install wind onshore, hydro, and nuclear power plants to transform the structure of her current electricity energy sector into a low-cost, environment-friendly and reliable structure. Turkey has also an immense untapped potential for wind power and hydro power resources.