Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model

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Year of publication:	2009
Authors:	Laxton, Douglas
Other Persons:	Scott, Alasdair (contributor) ; Rose, David (contributor)
Publisher:	Washington : International Monetary Fund
Subject:	Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Inflationssteuerung \| Inflation targeting \| Inflation \| Geldpolitik \| Monetary policy \| Prognose \| Forecast \| Theorie \| Theory

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Extent:	Online-Ressource (67 p)
Series:	IMF Working Papers IMF working paper ; WP/09/65
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Description based upon print version of record CONTENTS; I. Introduction; II. Developing a Decision-Making Process; III. Benefits of a Successful IFT Regime; IV. Critical Path For Developing A Structured FPAS; V. The Quarterly Projection Exercise; VI. The Core Model; VII. The Role of Models in the FPAS; Text Figures; 1. The Role of Models in the Forecast Process; 2. From Policy Issues to Policy Recommendations; VIII. On the Evolution and Development of the FPAS; 3. How Several Models can be Combined to Impose Consistency; Appendix Figures; 4. A Possible Reporting Structure; 5. Links Between Different Databases 6. The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism7. Inflation Expectations 10-Years-Ahead in the United Kingdom; Appendix Tables; 1. Estimation of a Model with Model-Consistent Measures of Potential GDP; 2. Notation: Time Periods Correspond to Calendar Quarters
ISBN:	978-1-4518-7212-5 ; 978-1-4519-9534-3 ; 978-1-4518-7212-5
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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