Die Hoffnung auf eine schnelle Reformdividende – direkte Erwartungseffekte institutioneller Reformen

Abstract Immediate effects of institutional reforms on growth and employment are highly important for political agents who frequently have short time horizons. Positive effects of expectations are a suitable transmission channel for a fast success of economic reforms. We analyse whether economic reforms have such an immediate impact on consumer confidence and business climate. We evaluate three case studies, which are supplemented by an additional econometric country panel analysis. Although we find some evidence for positive effects of reforms on business climate, we also detect that consumers tend to react with higher caution and growing insecurity. Our contribution discusses how policy makers should react on these findings.