Die Osterweiterung der Eurozone: Einige grundlegende Ueberlegungen zu Moeglichkeiten und Risiken

Once part of the European Union no opt-out means, for CEE applicant countries, that they will have to become members of the Eurozone as soon as they fulfil the Maastricht criteria. However, compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact and aiming at nominal and real convergence imply efforts which are significantly higher than the simple implementation of the acquis communautaire. Torn between completing their transformation process on the one hand and linking their economies as fast as possible to euroland on the other, most CEE countries face the risk of fixing their currency too eagerly, thus, being trapped to choose disinflation over growth. This paper presents the increased risk potential across the most important policy areas: capital markets, trade and FDI, labour markets, exchange rate policy, and monetary and fiscal policy. Moreover, a brief comparison of the Czech Republic and Poland reveals the need for further specific country analysis, since CEE countries’ exposure to possible risks of the Eurozone enlargement vary significantly.