Dinamica demografica della Libia e di alcuni paesi dell'area euro-mediterranea e possibili riflessi sulle relazioni internazionali

Population of Libya is expected to complete, in a short time, its first demographic transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality. This process is favoured by a high level of education, also among women, and high degree of urbanisation. Future behaviours of couples will largely affect its future demographic path. If between 2005 and 2050 the average number of children per woman should pass from the current 3.0 to 2.4, then the Libyan population will increase from 5.8 to 11.1 mil-lions; if the number of children should decrease up to 1.4, then Libyan population will reach, in 2050, 7.6 millions. In any case in 2050 population of Libya should be much smaller than that of: i) Algeria, with an expected population of 48.7 millions; ii) Egypt, with 127.4 millions; iii) Ethiopia, with 171.0 millions. Libya will remain at the centre of an enormous population pressure, therefore continuing to be country of destination and transit of massive migration flows.