Disinformation Cascades, Espionage & Counter-Intelligence

Information cascades occur when decision-makers beyond some point in a decision-making sequence find that it is optimal to follow the decision that others have taken even if their own private information indicates a contrary course of action. Information cascades are studied because they can help us to explain decision-making conformity and behaviour convergence, including fads and fashions. Cascades can be correct or incorrect, strong or fragile. The intelligence community has often been concerned with deception and disinformation. We call an incorrect information cascade precipitated by deception a ‘disinformation cascade.’ How easily can a disinformation cascade be started? How many intelligence officers must choose a certain way before a disinformation cascade starts? These are the questions we address in this paper