Dividend Policy Revisited : The Role of Cash Flow Uncertainty

In this study, we explore the role of expected cash flow volatility as a determinant of dividend policy. We first demonstrate that returns are increasing in dividend payout. But, we show that responses to changes in dividends are less sensitive to the magnitude of the change than to the sign of the change. We next develop a simple two period model which demonstrates that, given the existence of a large stock price penalty associated with dividend cuts. Managers rationally pay out lower levels of dividends when future cash flows are less certain. Our final empirical results show that payout ratios are lower for those firms that are smaller, more levered and less diversified. This result is consistent with information based explanations but not with agency cost theories