Divisional Budgetary Study under Internal Transfer System

This paper studies divisional budgetary forecasting and evaluation from the perspective of internal transfer mechanism. Considering divisional budget is relatively volatile and difficult for direct forecasting, and divisional operation efficiency is relatively stable and easy to predict, this paper constructs a set of models by leveraging relatively stable operation efficiency to forecast and evaluate relatively volatile divisional budget. Furthermore, this paper also reveals that these models can be used to predict the empirical extreme situations of divisional budget for subsequent period, and these extreme situations could be considered as the empirically possible range of divisional budget fluctuation for budget review purpose