Do Chinese exports crowd-out Turkish exports?

Along with China’s rise in world trade, there has been growing concern among developing countries including Turkey about competition with Chinese exports. This paper quantitatively investigates whether Chinese exports crowded out Turkish exports in world markets during the period 1990-2006 using extended gravity model. We include Chinese exports as an explanatory variable and investigate the impact of “China factor” in Turkish export performance in foreign markets. Using bilateral trade data, we also conduct our analyses for specific markets, specific product groups, and specific time periods. We found that for the large part, Chinese exports do not crowd out Turkish exports. This result holds for different markets as well as for different products. However, for the period during which China was a member of the World Trade Organization, the results are inconclusive.