Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?
Model-based SKU-level forecasts are often adjusted by experts. In this paper we propose a statistical methodology to test whether these expert forecasts improve on model forecasts. Application of the methodology to a very large database concerning experts in 35 countries who adjust SKU-level forecasts for pharmaceutical products in seven distinct categories leads to the general conclusion that expert forecasts are equally good at best, but are more often worse than model-based forecasts. We explore whether this is due to experts putting too much weight on their contribution, and this indeed turns out to be the case. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Year of publication: |
2010
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Authors: | Franses, Philip Hans ; Legerstee, Rianne |
Published in: |
Journal of Forecasting. - John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.. - Vol. 29.2010, 3, p. 331-340
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Publisher: |
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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