Do Small Firms Predict Their Employment Correctly? Causal Relationships between Firms' Employment, Wages, and Loans

This paper investigates the difference between firms' actual and expected employment along the amount of loan invested by them. In addition, it examines the relationship between the amount of loan received by firms and wages. Empirically, using a causal effect estimation and small-sized firms data from a province in Iran between 2004 and 2011, the results show that there is a range of the loan amount for which firms' expected employment meets their actual one. In contrast, there is a gap between firms' actual and expected employment for any other loan amount. Furthermore, the result indicates that there is a positive and significant relationship between the amount of loan invested by firms and wages