DOES EXCHANGE RATE MATTER TO AGRICULTURAL BILATERAL TRADE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANAD?

This study examines the effects of the U.S.-Canada exchange rate on bilateral trade of agricultural goods between the two countries and on U.S. farm income. Special attention is given to agricultural trade between the two countries under the Canada - United States Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA). This study utilizes two time series models: the vector error correction model (VECM) and the vector moving average model (VMA) with quarterly time series data from 1983 to 2000. This study found that exchange rates have a significant impact on U.S. agricultural trade with Canada and that the exchange rate between the two currencies is weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector, indicating that it is not influenced by U.S. agricultural trade with Canada and U.S. farm income.