Does Speculation with Agricultural Commodity Futures Cause Price Bubbles in the Event of Negative Production Shocks?.

Intro -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The Efficiency of Financial Markets With Special Reference to Commodity Futures Markets - A Review -- 2.1 The Efficient Market Hypothesis vs. Behavioural Finance Theories: Insights into the Efficiency of Financial Markets -- 2.1.1 The Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Theoretical Foundation -- 2.1.2 Behavioural Finance Theories -- 2.1.3 Efficient Market Hypothesis and Behavioural Finance Theories: The Empirical Evidence -- 2.2 Assessing the Efficiency of Commodity Futures Markets with Cointegration Tests -- 2.2.1 Cointegration Tests: The General Approach -- 2.2.2 Cointegration Tests Applied: Empirical Results about the Efficiency of (Agricultural) Commodity Futures Markets -- 2.2.3 Some Remarks on the Cointegration Approach -- 2.3 Increased Index Funds Activities on Commodity Markets -- 2.3.1 Background of the Financialization of Commodity Markets -- 2.3.2 How the Financialization of Commodity Futures Markets Can Affect Their Efficiency: The Transmission Channel -- 2.3.3 Does the Financialization of Commodity Markets Affect Their Efficiency? The Empirical Evidence -- 2.4 Summary of the Literature Review -- 3. The Competitive Storage Model - Interlinking Commodity Price Expectations and Current Spot Prices -- 3.1. The Theory of the Competitive Storage Model -- 3.2 The Empirical Evidence of the Competitive Storage Model -- 4. The Storage Transmission Mechanism - Modelling the Effects of Overshooting Commodity Futures Prices on Spot Prices -- 4.1 Excessive Storage and its Effects on Spot Prices -- 4.2 Reflections on the Storage Transmission Mechanism under Consideration of the Literature -- 4.3 Research Hypotheses -- 5. Methodology and Data -- 5.1 Maize as Object of Investigation and its Cultivation Periods -- 5.2 Test Methods -- 5.2.1 Modelling the Effect of Production Shocks on the Current Spot Price (Hypothesis 1).