DOES THE MARKET ANTICIPATE SMOOTHING IN USDA CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS?

This study examines whether market participants anticipate the predictable component in USDA revisions of corn and soybean production forecasts during 1970/71 through 2003/04 marketing years. The analysis revealed that markets consistently under-predicted October corn production revisions and over-predicted September soybean production revisions. These biases may be attributable to inefficient use of information about smoothing in USDA revisions. In all other cases market analysts seemed to be aware of USDA smoothing practices and generally efficiently incorporated this information into their own forecasts.