Does the sun ‘shine’ on art prices?

This paper examines how variation in mood influences subjective risk and hence auction prices for art in London during the period 1990–2007. The private value of an object is closely related to taste and mood which is proxied for by the variation in weather. Using a unique data set that includes presale estimates for paintings sold through Sotheby's and Christie's auction houses as well as weather data for London from the British Atmospheric Data Centre we find that the lower part of the price distribution is populated with paintings with a relative high private value, whereas in the upper part, prices are driven primarily by the common value characteristics. Our findings have important implications for collectors and investors in the art market.